Discoveries and Results
6/17/06 This is a
little dated in style, but mostly OK. edit + notes preceeded --What I think should be
recognized as my fundamental discoveries of nature
- Growth trends usually locate the emergence of
new complex systems developing new internalized loops of relationships,
and that growth always destabilizes its own structure, all recognizable from
reading the connections between the data points in measures of change as
perpendicular to the page.
- The four signs of change, iidd.htm
- Natural time flows in the direction of events (and
is
not a location on a scale like our accounting scheme)
- Clear evidence of organized
molecular motion
- Economic growth as a long range plan is a profound
mistake, probably resulting from thinking the earth is an image.
Advances in Methodology
- Derivative reconstruction and related shape
analysis tools, 1999 paper
- The step variance test for random walk in
sequential data, 1999
paper
- Irregularity in data is usually an indication of
poorly represented fluctuation, not noise
Some fairly solid results in various specialties:
- Gamma Ray bursts have intricate
detail, and
are apparently the result of cosmic
implosions,
most likely from black hole formation.
--note that this conclusion was reached by shape analysis long before
astrophysicists reached the same conclusion by other methods.
- If there ever was an economic growth
constant ,
it preceded 1880. The appearance of a growth constant since then has
apparently
been just an artifact of the statistical method used, since, with only
one exception, the rate of economic growth has been in continual
decline
throughout the history of the statistical record. The statistical
appearance
of a sustained growth rate comes from a combination of short term
variability,
and the presence of one significant rise.
- Biological evolution sometimes
occurs by a growth process rather
than just following a random drift or varying environmental
pressures.
This shows that the gaps in the record of evolution could be explained by the
kind of complex system development process which accounts for system
organization elsewhere.
- Changes in earth surface temperature and
rates of economic
activity (producing
CO2) over the past 100 years exhibit differing
dynamics
that suggest that other factors have been dominant in climate
change.
Over the past 30 years their accelerations of change appear linked in appearing to have several matching turning
points, though the directions of each trend is still quite different.
-- this is dated but worth considering in refining the understanding of the
link